MPs debate HS2: Politics live blog (2024)

David Lidington, a Foreign Office minister, has declared that he is not voting for HS2 tonight because of his concerns about the bill and that he will resign from the government if he does not secure better safeguards for his constituents, including a tunnel under the Chilterns. He made his comment in an interview with his local paper, confirming that being in Estonia for a lecture is not the sole reason he will not be voting with the government tonight. His threat is slightly less drastic than it sounds, because the unusual procedure being used to approve this bill (because it's deemed "hybrid") means it will not clear parliament until after the election and it may not even reach third reading by polling day. At least two other Tory ministers are dodging tonight's vote. As the debate opened, a small number of MPs expressed their opposition to the bill. But Patrick McLoughlin did his best to avoid provoking them in an emollient speech in which he said he would not dismiss his critics as Luddites or nimbys.

Of course I understand the depths of concern the line has caused in some places and that is why I have made it very clear to my officials that there is no place for talk of Luddites or nimbys in the department or HS2. We must respect people and try and help them meet their concerns.

In her speech Mary Creagh, his Labour shadow, strongly supported HS2, not least on environmental grounds (a factor McLoughlin did not mention). She said Labour was not offering the project a "blank cheque". But she sidestepped a question about whether Labour was still imposing a strict £50bn spending limit on the project.

Philip Hammond, the defence secretary, has said that Britain is deploying four Typhoon fighter-jets to the Baltics as part of a Nato show of support against the backdrop of the Ukraine crisis.The news emerged as William Hague confirmed in a statement to MPs that the EU is expanding sanctions on Russia.

Hague has strongly criticised Alex Salmond for expressing admiration for "certain aspects" of Vladimir Putin's leadership. Hague told MPs:

I think people throughout Scotland and indeed the whole of the United Kingdom will be horrified by these comments.

Even as Russia was annexing by force the Crimea, to pay tribute to the restoration of pride in Russia is a gross error of judgment in international relations and very concerning in the attitude of the Scottish National Party.

The Open Europe thinktank has said that anti-EU parties could win more than 30% of the vote across the continent in the European elections, up from 24.9% on the vote in 2009.

Alex Salmond has put himself on a collision course with Westminster and the European Union by insisting that an independent Scotland would automatically remain in the EU while still enjoying the UK's key opt-outs from the EU regime.

David Cameron has confused Chelmsford with Colchester on an election visit. As the Press Association reports, asked by BBC Essex about local spending cuts, the prime minister was keen to point out that Chelmsford Borough Council was spending more now than it was in 2008 when the financial crash happened. "Chelmsford has not been unfairly targeted," he insisted. Unfortunately for Cameron, he was not in Chelmsford, but in neighbouring Colchester.

The Ukip campaign bus has been involved in a minor crash with a railway station canopy. As the Press Association reports, the crash happened as the driver attempted to manoeuvre out of a car park after greeting party leader Nigel Farage. The purple bus, with only one passenger on board, arrived at Portsmouth and Southsea railway station to greet Farage, who was visiting the Hampshire city as part of his campaign for the forthcoming European elections. But the collision happened as the bus appeared to make a U-turn as it could not fit under the railway platform bridge at the exit of the car park. The bus appeared to suffer damage to the front although only minor damage appeared to have been sustained by the canopy.

James Arbuthnot, the Conservative chair of the Commons defence committee, has announced he is resigning from that post. MPs will vote for his successor in a secret ballot, although only Tories will be allowed to stand (because this is one of the select committee chairmanships allocated to the Conservatives). The election will be on Wednesday 14 May.

That's all from me for today.

Thanks for the comments.

Mary Creagh has now finished.

Cheryl Gillan is now speaking.

She says more than 50 MPs want to speak in the debate. So she will be brief, she says.

Her views are set out in her amendment, see 4.19pm, or in this article she published yesterday in the Mail on Sunday.

I will post a summary shortly.

Creagh says HS2 will take passengers off airplanes. This will help to cut carbon emissions, she says. HS2 will be a "green spine".

(Patrick McLoughlin did not make this argument at all.)

Caroline Lucas, the Green MP, says only about 11% of passengers are going to make that shift, from air to train. HS2 will instead encourage people to make new journeys. So it won't have this effect, she says.

Creagh says getting people out of cars onto trains would bring huge benefits.

(For more on this, do read this blog from Carbon Brief, which analyses the impact of HS2 on carbon emissions.)

Bill Cash, a Conservative, asks what benefits there are to his constituents in Staffordshire.

Better rail links to London, says Creagh.

Creagh says Labour welcomes the removal of the HS1/HS2 link.

And they welcome Sir David Higgins proposal for a coherent rail strategy for the north.

Creagh says Euston could be London's biggest redevelopment project.

Creagh says the first phase of HS2 will bring 40,000 jobs.

Jack Straw, the Labour former foreign secretary, says as much money is being spent redeveloping Reading station as is being spent on the whole of electrification in the north west.

Creagh says Labour still takes the view that there is no blank cheque for the project.

There is a very clear budget set up up to 2020.

As a result of a Labour amendment added to the paving bill, there must now be annual reports on the cost, she says.

Creagh says splitting the project into two parts delayed benefits to the north.

Reviewing alternatives took 18 months, she says.

And she says the government has been slow to bring forward its compensation plans.

Jonathan Edwards, the Plaid Cymru MP, asks for a guarantee that Labour would give Wales "Barnett consequentials" for HS2.

Creagh says the priority in Wales is the electrification of the Cardiff Valleys line.

Caroline Lucas, the Green MP, asks Creagh if she agrees that there is no way that you can mitigate the damate to an ancient woodland. According to the Woodlands Trusts, 83 woodlands will be affected.

(That's an excuse for another Wildlife Trusts tweet of a pretty slab of countryside.)

Creagh says she is surprised that the Greens are opposing what will be a vital part of Britain's low-carbon infrastructure.

Creagh says Labour introduced Crossrail when it was in government.

Britain needs to take the same approach to the capacity problems on the national network, she says.

John Redwood, a Conservative, asks what changed between last autumn, when Labour thought this was poor value for money, and today, when it thinks it is good value for money.

Mary Creagh says the appointment of Sir David Higgins to take charge of the project made a difference.

Andrew Bridgen asks if Labour's support for HS2 is still contingent on it being delivered for under £50bn.

Creagh says this is something that will be looked at when the bill is in committee.

Michael Fabricant intervenes almost as soon as Mary Creagh starts.

Does she share understand his concern that, when both front benches agree, he is a "teensie weensie" bit concerned that they might be getting something wrong?

Creagh says there is nothing teensie weensie about Patrick McLoughlin. She'll leave it at that, she says.

Patrick McLoughlin has finished.

Mary Creagh, his Labour shadow, is opening her speech now.

McLoughlin is winding up now.

Yes - it will take time to complete.

But so did the canals, railways and motorways which previous generations left as their legacy.

Our age can achieve something just as great.

I’m from the Midlands. Born in Staffordshire, I represent Derbyshire.

I know the potential of Britain.

And I know that built right, on time and to budget, HS2 can help our great cities thrive.

McLoughlin says the government will introduce a "need-to-sell scheme".

I want this to be easy to understand and work fairly.

It is more than just a re-labeling of the previous exceptional hardship scheme. It will be more generous, too.

Cheryl Gillan says more needs to be done to protect areas of outstanding beauty, particularly in her constituency and David Lidington's.

McLoughlin says 20.8k of the line will go through the Chilterns. Only 3k is above ground, he says.

McLoughlin says he understands the concerns about HS2. He will not allow his department to dismiss critics as Luddites or nimbys, he says.

Labour's Liam Byrne asks about the plan for a marshalling yard in Birmingham.

He says this will take up space the size of 105 football pitches that had been set aside for job creation.

McLoughlin says, if HS2 is going ahead, there has to be somewhere to service the trains.

McLoughlin says he is "constrained" by what he can say about compensation, because the plans are still out for consultation.

Andrew Bridgen says many people will "go to their graves" trapped in homes they cannot sell because of HS2.

McLoughlin says he does not accept that.

McLoughlin turns to the impact of the line.

I believe that our proposals strike the right balance.

Over half the route – is in tunnels or cuttings.

More than two thirds of the line’s surface sections will be insulated by cuttings and landscaping.

No grade 1 listed building is affected.

Only around 100 homes will be demolished in the nearly 100 miles of the rural part of Phase 1.

And the line is designed to be secure against flooding.

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McLoughlin says the government has carried out "the largest environmental impact assessment of a major project ever undertaken in the UK".

Labour's Andrew Slaughter asks what links there will be to Heathow.

McLoughlin says he does not want to pre-empt the Davies report (on airport capacity in the south east.)

McLoughlin says some people ask why the government is rushing HS2 (see Christian Wolmar at 4.11pm). And some people ask why the government is taking so long (Lord Adonis, for example).

In fact, the government is doing it properly, he says.

Jonathan Edwards, the Plaid Cyrmu, asks why "Barnett consequentials" (ie, equivalent funding) are not going to Wales. It's an England-only project, he says.

McLoughlin says HS2 will eventually go to Scotland. And he says he thinks Scotland and Wales will both benefit from phase one.

Labour's Glenda Jackson asks if local people will be given the training opportunities.

"Definitely," says McLoughlin.

McLoughlin says, with HS2, Milton Keynes could get 11 trains to London an hour, not six as it has now.

More details of the route north of Birmingham will be released later this year, he says.

Soon the government will announce the location of the FE college being set up, backed by HS2.

This is not just an investment in steel, and rolling stock.

It is also a huge investment in our people right across the nation.

McLoughlin says Britain needs more rail capacity.

Even on moderate forecasts, services will be increasingly full by the mid-2020s.

If we don’t create extra capacity, people at stations such as Milton Keynes and Northampton will have to queue to get on a train to get to work.

That’s despite £9bn of disruptive work on the West Coast Mainline in recent years.

More upgrades like that will not provide the extra capacity that we need.

Cheryl Gillan, the leading Conservative rebel, says the West Coast Mainline will still need renovation even if HS2 goes ahead.

McLoughlin says it is not "crumbling". There has been a £10bn upgrade, he says.

McLoughlin says when he first became an MP, Euston was better than King's Cross and St Pancras.

Now it is the worst of the three.

HS2 will create a chance for it to be transformed, he says.

McLoughlin talks about other railway improvement plans in the pipeline.

There have been "amazing transformations at places like St Pancras and Kings Cross stations", he says.

But this investment in London should not come at the expense at the rest of the country, he says.

Bill Cash, a Conservative, says those affected should get full-value compensation, not just the measures being offered.

Michael Fabricant, a Conservative, says he does not object to HS2 in principle. But this one does not link to the Channel Tunnel, and it does not link to the new airport or runway being planned.

Jack Straw, the Labour former foreign secretary, says the M40 was disruptive to the Chilterns. But no one is now saying it should not have been built.

(Straw has a home in the Chilterns.)

Labour's Barry Sheerman says the opponents of HS2 are not "flat earthists". They object to this scheme because they think it is flawed. Independent reports have shown that, he says.

McLoughlin says Sheerman never objected to HS2 when Labour proposed it and it was in power.

McLoughlin mentions the comparison with China. (See 10.57am.)

Andrew Bridgen, a Conservative, asks McLoughlin what percentage of the population he expects to use HS2.

McLoughlin quotes what Bridgen said about him on Radio 4 yesterday. He said McLoughlin had been an excellent chief whip. But he also said McLoughlin was the man to ask if you wanted to get a slaughter of the first born bill through parliament. McLoughlin says that bit he did not agree with.

People objected to HS1, he says. But, after it was built, people thought it was an improvement.

McLoughlin says the government will invest £73bn between 2015 and 2021 in all forms of transport.

We need to do all this because to support our economy we need our infrastructure to work.

In 1999, two years after the Jubilee line reached Canary Wharf, 27,000 people were employed in the area. By 2012 that was over 100,000, he says.

McLoughlin says it is time to connect Britain's cities.

Today you can get a high speed train from London to Lille - but not to Leeds.

From London to Brussels - but not to Birmingham.

That has got to change.

Bob Ainsworth, the Labour MP, says he thinks Coventry could in principle benefit from HS2.

Patrick McLoughlin says the government never pretended HS2 was just about speed.

Joan Walley, chair of the environmental audit committee, says the environmental impact of the bill has not been properly considered.

McLoughlin says he understands the concerns about getting the route right.

The consultation about the route beyond Birmingham is still going on.

John Redwood, a Conservative, says none of the HS2 debt will be paid out of revenue. So it is a public spending decision, he says.

McLoughlin says the cost/benefit ratio is good. The cost/benefit ratio for the Jubilee line was less than 1, he says. But the regeneration of east London would not have happened without that, he says.

Labour's Paul Farrelly asks what discussions McLoughlin has had about a stop at Stoke, or a spur to it.

McLoughlin says this bill just covers the route to Birmingham.

The route beyond Birmingham is still a matter of consideration, he says.

McLoughlin says the West Coast Mainline is increasingly full.

And London and the South East are increasingly full too, he says.

Labour's Jim Cunningham asks how Coventry will benefit.

McLoughlin says he will address that later in his speech.

Patrick McLoughlin, the transport secretary, is opening the point.

He is using the passage about the building of the West Coast Mainline in the 19th century I quoted earlier. (See 10.57am.)

John Bercow says there will be a vote on Cheryl Gillan's amendment. (See 4.19pm.)

There will be a five-minute limit on backbench speeches, he says, apart from for Gillan and the chair of the transport committee.

The Ukraine statement is over. On a point of order, Michael Fabricant says an hour has already been lost from the time set aside for debate. He asks John Bercow if he would accept a manuscript amendment to extend the debate until 10pm.

Debates normally end at 10pm on a Monday, but this one is going to run until 11pm.

Bercow says he would need the whole House to assent to that. He suggests that is unlikely.

So the debate will just run until 11pm.

David Lidington has explained why he is "abstaining" in today's debate. (See 3.28pm.) His Ukip opponent, Chris Adams, has said Lidington should be in the Commons to vote against.

The HS2 debate will be starting shortly.

MPs are deciding whether to give the bill a second reading.

Two amendments have been tabled, both saying it should not get a second reading.

Here is the one table by the Conservative MP Michael Fabricant (and signed by nine other Tories).

That this House, while recognising the ever-increasing need for additional north-south rail line capacity to relieve congestion on the West Coast Mainline and to improve connectivity between major cities and with London, declines to give the High Speed Rail (London - West Midlands) Bill a second reading because the line as set forth in the Bill (a) is insensitively routed through previously unspoiled countryside unnecessarily damaging the environment including wildlife habitats, ancient woodlands and waterways, (b) is significantly more costly than it need be because of the extra mitigation required to reduce environmental damage arising from the current planned route, (c) unlike much of the planned route north of the West Midlands and unlike similar lines in continental Europe, does not propose the use of existing transport corridors which would mitigate environmental damage and construction costs, (d) fails to connect directly to existing major mainline stations, (e) fails to connect directly with potential airport hubs for London and the south-east of England, (f) fails to connect with High Speed 1 and the Channel Tunnel, (g) fails to provide for sufficient public transport to disperse passengers disembarking from High Speed 2 (HS2) trains at Euston, (h) provides inadequate compensation to those blighted by the route and those whose property is subject to compulsory purchase orders and (i) does not provide for construction to start from Manchester and Leeds; and therefore calls on the Government to produce revised HS2 legislation with a more environmentally sympathetic and cost-effective route.

And here is the one tabled by Cheryl Gillan, the former Welsh secretary. It has been signed by 10 other Tories, four Labour MPs and one Green.

That this House, while accepting the need to increase overall railway capacity, declines to give a second reading to the Bill because there has been inadequate opportunity for Members and those affected by the Bill to consider and respond to the report of the Assessor appointed under Standing Order 224A, which was not published until shortly before the Easter recess; because assessments of the relative costs and benefits of works envisaged by the Bill have been repeatedly unconvincing and still fail to demonstrate a sound economic case for the proposed works, particularly in relation to other options; because the Secretary of State has declined to publish the Major Projects Authority report on High Speed 2, with the result that Members have been denied access to highly significant evidence on the viability of the project; because the case for starting further high-speed rail construction in this country with a line from London to the West Midlands rather than in the north of England has not been convincingly made out; because the Bill will cause widespread environmental disruption to many areas of the country including areas of outstanding natural beauty; and because the Bill should be preceded by proper consideration of and a strategy for integrating high-speed rail with other transport modes including the UK’s international airport hubs.

The HS2 debate will be starting in about 10 minutes or so.

Before it starts, here's an HS2 reading list.

Christian Wolmar criticises the case for HS2 in a (very long) article for the London Review of Books.

It is probably too late for such a radical alternative to be put forward. If the present scheme were killed off, it is unlikely that it would be because a better one were being considered. There are few objective analysts of HS2. On the one side there is the large group of consultants, engineers, project managers and so on who stand to gain directly from it. On the other side are those who have the most to lose or are, like the Institute of Directors, sceptical of large-scale government projects. One impartial analyst is Peter Hall, Britain’s best-known planning academic. He thinks the scheme should be given an amber light. In an article in Built Environment published late last year, he wrote that the future of HS2 depended on two critical elements, the value of time spent on the train and its ‘wider economic impacts’. The case for regeneration is uncertain, he says, and requires much further analysis. He concludes that there is no need for urgency ‘either to proceed with the project or to cancel it’. HS2 ‘will almost certainly be needed one day. The key question is what day? … there could be no harm, and a great deal of merit, in waiting.’ Given the changes now being proposed to the scheme, the pressure to concentrate more on the North, and the weakness of the business case, this would make sense. But very little about HS2 has made sense, and politicians, nervous of being seen to dither, are always in a hurry.

Philip Cowley and Mark Stuart identify two points of note about tonight's vote.

Mark Wallace at ConservativeHome publishes maps of the route of HS2 (from @election_data) showing maps of the constituencies HS2 passes through, and the size of the relevant majorities.

Nick Hurd, the Cabinet Office minister, has told Tories in his Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner constituency that he will not be taking part in tonight's vote, according to Coffee House.

Here's Rupert Read, the Green party's transport spokesman, on HS2.

All credit to the Tory MPs who are voting against HS2 today, but unfortunately such nimbyism alone will never defeat this white elephant scheme. There is one party standing firm on principle against HS2: the Green party. As more and more think-tanks, businesses and columnists turn against HS2, it's time to start thinking concretely about how that money should be better spent.

Here's an excuse for a picture of a lovely wood. It's a tweet from Wildlife Trusts.

ComRes has released the findings from a poll of 150 MPs suggesting that around 30% of them are opposed to HS2.

Here's an excerpt from the news release.

With the second reading of the HS2 bill today, a new ComRes poll of 150 MPs shows that three in ten (30%) MPs across the House would support the complete scrapping of HS2 and a return to the drawing board on planning and increasing rail capacity, while 53% would oppose scrapping it. There is no difference between the three main parties with 31% of Conservatives, 31% of Labour and 30% of Liberal Democrat MPs all being in favour of abandoning HS2.

Half (50%) of MPs say they support the current plans for the first phase of HS2 while 32% oppose them; again there is little difference between the parties: 53% of Conservative MPs, 54% of Liberal Democrats and 46% of Labour MPs.

There is also some support for the idea of redirecting some of the funds earmarked for HS2 into reinforcing the UK’s flood defences and other infrastructure. Three in ten (29%) support the moving of funds towards flood defences while 57% oppose it.

More popular is the redirecting of some of the HS2 money into expanding existing capacity, 44% support this while 39% oppaose it. Support for redirecting funds into existing capacity is higher among Labour MPs (54%) than Conservatives (36%).

Andrew Hawkins, ComRes Chairman said: “Despite the whipped vote tonight, our poll reveals the true extent of unease among MPs of all parties towards HS2. Given the level of opposition among his own backbenchers this threatens to be another blow to the prime minister’s standing within parliament.”

But I'm not sure about the "blow to the PM's standing within parliament" line in Hawkins' statement. Generally, pollsters should stick to polling, and leave the journalistic twaddle to us. It becomes a blow to David Cameron's standing, surely, when large numbers of his MPs vote against him. But if 31% of Tory MPs are privately opposed to the idea, but only around 10% of them vote against, that suggests his authority is holding up.

My colleague Rowena Mason has more news on Tory MPs whose constituencies are affected by HS2 who will be missing tonight.

But Andy Burnham, the shadow health secretary, who said two months ago that he might rebel over HS2, has decided not to.

David Lidington, the Europe minister and Conservative MP for Aylesbury (who is conveniently in Estonia tonight, allowing him to miss the vote - see 12.18pm) has told his local paper that he is "abstaining" and that he will resign from the government at the bill's third reading (presumably so he can vote against) if the compensation package for people affected by HS2 does not improve.

I will resign at a later stage of the bill if they don’t get mitigation, and that for me includes a Chilterns tunnel.

I can understand where residents are coming from and I thought long and hard about what I should do.

But given the harsh reality of parliamentary arithmetic I felt that the best outcome would be to stay and fight [within government] for the mitigation and compensation that people deserve.

If I stood down I would just be one more MP that is against HS2, but by staying in I have the inside track, it’s a pragmatic political judgement.

I’ve always tried to work in the best interests of the constituents, and I came to the view in the end that a huge majority exists for HS2, therefore it is desperately important that our area is at the table when ministers are taking decisions about environmental mitigation and compensation.

So Lidington is threatening to resign - but not now, only at the bill's third reading.

That could be some way off. This is not a normal government bill, but instead a "hybrid" bill, a bill that combines public and private elements. That means that the procedures that apply when it is going through parliament are different; those affected have the right to petition the committee considering it. It may a long time before the bill gets to third reading.

I have put an update to the post about likely rebels I wrote earlier (see 2.52pm) adding the names of more MPs (mostly Tories) who are going to vote against the bill tonight.

Jonathan Isaby points out that the TaxPayers' Alliance is opposed to HS2.

Here are the names of 39 MPs who voted in June 2013 for an amendment saying the HS2 paving bill should not have a second reading, or who acted as a teller.

They are not necessarily all going to vote against the bill tonight, but most of those how are going to rebel tonight will be on this list.

Conservatives

Steven Baker, Wycombe

John Baron, Basildon and Billericay

Andrew Bridgen, North West Leicestershire

Dan Byles, North Warwickshire

William Cash, Stone

Philip Davies, Shipley

Richard Drax, South Dorset

Cheryl Gillan, Chesham and Amersham

James Gray, North Wiltshire

Philip Hollobone, Kettering

Adam Holloway, Gravesham

Andrea Leadsom, South Northamptonshire. (This was before she became a minister. She is not expected to vote against tonight, although it is not yet known whether she will actually vote for it.)

Jeremy Lefroy, Stafford

Julian Lewis, New Forest East

Tim Loughton, East Worthing and Shoreham

Anne Main, St Albans

David Nuttall, Bury North

Neil Parish, Tiverton and Honiton

Laurence Robertson, Tewkesbury

Andrew Turner, Isle of Wight

Andrew Tyrie, Chichester

Chris White, Warwick and LeamingtonConaye

Labour

Labour as a whole voted for the HS2 paving bill in June last year, but at the time the party's support for HS2 was more half-hearted than it is now, but so Labour MPs may have felt more comfortable rebelling.

Ronnie Campbell, Blyth Valley

Jeremy Corbyn, Islington North

John Cryer, Leyton and Wanstead

Jim Cunningham, Coventry South

Frank Dobson, Holborn and St Pancras

Natascha Engel, North East Derbyshire

Roger Godsiff, Birmingham, Hall Green

Kate Hoey, Vauxhall

Kelvin Hopkins, Luton North

Geoffrey Robinson, Coventry North West

Barry Sheerman, Huddersfield

Dennis Skinner, Bolsover

Andrew Smith, Oxford East

Lib Dems

Sir Bob Russell, Colchester

Plaid Cymru

Plaid Cymru is opposed to HS2 as the plans currently stand (see 12.39pm), and so these MPs were not really rebelling.

Jonathan Edwards, Camarthen East and Dinefwr

Elfyn Llwyd, Dwyfor Meirionnydd

Hywel Williams, Arfon

UPDATE AT 15.08PM: And here are the names of MPs who did not support the amendment opposing the paving bill last year, but who have added their name to one or both of the two amendments on the order paper today (pdf) saying the bill should not get a second reading.

Conservatives

Bob Blackman

Christopher Chope

David Davis

Michael Fabricant

Chris Kelly

Phillip Lee

Sir Edward Leigh

Caroline Spelman

Greens

Caroline Lucas

Here's the Stop HS2 protest that has been taking place outside parliament.

Here's the Stop HS2 news release about it.

And here's a comment from Joe Rukin, Stop HS2's campaign manager.

Everyone knows that the case for HS2 has been fiddled, and there is no better example of this than the fact government has refused to publish reports on the project, after the Information commissioner said they had to be released in the public interests. The case for HS2 has kept changing: they said it would be green, but it isn’t; they have said it has a great business case, but it hasn’t; they have said it is needed for capacity, but it doesn’t provide capacity where it is needed; and they have said it will rebalance the economy and develop the north, but the opposite is true. So the question remains, what is HS2 for? The answer is as it always has been for no other reason than political vanity and strong lobbying from those with vested interests in HS2 going ahead. It seems that everyone besides the political elite knows HS2 will be a disaster, so whatever happens today, we will fight on.

Many people would hope that in a parliamentary democracy, MPs would have all the facts available to them, before they are asked to commit such massive expenditure to a project, but that is not how this government works. Today, we expect that MPs will create a dangerous precedent, knowing that the government has suppressed critical reports on HS2, the first time a legal ruling to be published will have been vetoed concerning a bill before parliament.

The Conservative MP Jeremy Lefroy addressed the rally.

Lord Deighton, the Treasury minister responsible for infrastructure, has said that the expected Tory rebellion over HS2 this evening will be a sign that the political system is "working very well". This is what he told the Today programme.

Twenty or 30 odd out of 600 is a rather small minority and, frankly, in a parliamentary democracy I’d be concerned if the number was closer to zero. There are clearly very significant local interests where people feel extremely strongly…

You can look at the correlation between people who are likely to vote against and those who have constituencies in the most affected areas and I think it’s the government’s job to make a powerful advocacy for the greater good, just as it’s the responsibility of those in those constituencies to make the local case and then overall we’ll balance it out. So I think what you’re seeing is, in fact, the process working and working very well.

According to BBC research, at least 30 Tory MPs are expected to vote against the bill.

Police have said they have identified "a number of suspects" as part of an investigation into alleged sexual abuse at a school linked to the late MP Cyril Smith. Rochdale council has also announced an inquiry into a potential cover-up of abuse at the residential school for boys.

Natalie Bennett, the Green party leader, has said at the launch of the party's European election campaign that the Greens offer hope and solutions.

This election is about choice. Denial and despair or hope and opportunity. We can build a brighter future. We can find solutions to the challenges that we face.

When people hear about our policies – bringing the railways back into public hands, turning the minimum wage into a living wage, scrapping tuition fees and insulating every home – they vote Green.

When they vote Green they get Green. We don’t just highlight problems, we build lasting solutions.

You can read their mini manifesto here.

Nigel Evans has had the Conservative party whip returned following his acquittal on rape and sexual assault charges earlier this month.

Plaid Cymru has said at the launch of its European election campaign that skilled migrants from other countries should be encouraged to move to Wales.

Boris Johnson, the London mayor, has said accused the RMT of staging tonight's tube strike in London primarily to suit the aspirations of those fighting for the union's leadership.

I urge the RMT to call off this pointless strike and get back round the table with London Underground and the three other unions who've chosen not to strike.

It seems the RMT leadership is set against modernisation and has no fresh ideas of its own.

More than 600 people have asked for voluntary redundancy and yet, without consulting any of their own members, the RMT is suddenly insisting that London Underground halt this process.

Despite dozens of meetings over several months, the RMT chose only on Friday to make fresh demands. It seems they are more interested in fighting over the leadership of the RMT than the interests of their members.

Commuters and businesses will suffer because a few narrow-minded union barons are currently flexing their muscles in a fight for the leadership of a union where just 30% of members support a strike.

On his blog Guido Fawkes publishes what he says is an email exchange between government advisers following the Telegraph splash on Friday night saying Andrea Leadsom, the new Treasury minister, opposed HS2 before joining the government. It includes one from someone saying Leadsom is a "liability" and that she should not be allowed to abstain in tonight's vote. But Guido has redacted the name of the sender, which rather lessens the impact of the story.

Plaid Cymru MPs are opposing HS2. They point out that research only released as a result of a Freedom of Information request says that cities like Cardiff will actually lose out as a result of HS2. This is from Jonathan Edwards, Plaid's transport and Treasury spokesman.

The last time I looked on a map, London, Birmingham, Manchester, Sheffield, and Leeds were all in England. I find it difficult to see how the UK Government can claim that this is a UK-wide project. In reality what we are seeing once again is a UK Government using Welsh taxpayers’ money from the general pool of taxation to fund an infrastructure project which will disadvantage our economy.

The budget for HS2 is spiralling out of control and construction hasn’t yet begun. The budget for HS2 will inevitably increase and it will be the only game in town for generations in terms of rail infrastructure spend, meaning that there will be less money to invest in Welsh transport infrastructure.

Wales historically only gets a fraction of infrastructure investment - far less than what our population share would demand. We can ill afford to not receive our fair share from HS2.

Edwards says Plaid will oppose HS2 unless they get assurances that Wales will not lose out.

Here are the main points from the Number 10 lobby briefing.

Number 10 played down, but did not deny, suggestions that government ministers who oppose HS2 because they represent constituencies badly affected have been allowed to miss tonight's vote. Isabel Hardman at Coffee House has identified six Conservative ministers whose constituencies are impacted. At the lobby briefing journalists laughed when the prime minister's spokesman explained that one of them, David Liddington, would miss the vote tonight because he is "taking part in government business" in Estonia. Another, Andrea Leadsom, is expected to miss the vote because she will be attending a meeting in Brussels. Asked if ministers like Liddington and Leadsom had been given the opportunity to miss the vote, the spokesman replied:

HS2 is government policy. Usual whipping arrangements will be in place.

That does not actually tell us much. It is not unusual for the whips to allow government ministers to miss votes. It is unusual, but not unprecedented, for ministers to be allowed to miss a vote because they cannot support a bill for constituency reasons. This would not happen if the government were in danger of losing. But, with Labour supporting the bill, there is no danger of that.

Downing Street rejected the IEA report (see 10.09am) claiming HS2 will not benefit the north as much as the government claims. Asked about this, the spokesman said:

I would bring you back to the very strong support for this project that we are seeing from leaders of cities like Manchester, Birmingham and Leeds. They think, and the government very much agrees, that this is very important for the future of the UK, including as part of the rebalancing argument.

The spokesman also said there was an important capacity argument for HS2.

The question is not do we need very significant additional capacity on the West Coast Mainline. We do. The question then becomes should we have the most modern railway system that we can have. The government strongly thinks we should.

Number 10 signalled that the government would not object in principle to the American drugs firm Pfizer buying the British firm AstraZeneca. It this deal goes ahead, it will be the biggest foreign takeover of a British company. The prime minister's spokesman would not comment on the detail of the bid, beyond saying that there were well-established takeover procedures that would have to be followed. But he said that in principle the government did not object to takeovers of this kind.

The fact that Britain has an open, trade-based economy that is open both to investment, and British firms investing overseas, that's a strength.

William Hague, the foreign secretary, will make a statement to the Commons at 3.30pm about Ukraine.

Number 10 declined to criticise Alex Salmond, Scotland's first minster, for saying he admires "certain aspects" of Vladimir Putin's leadership."I will let the first minister take questions about his interview," said the spokesman.

Downing Street confirmed that a Russian invasion of east Ukraine would lead to the EU imposing a tougher category of sanctions, full trade and economic sanctions.

Cameron planted some poppy seeds in the Number 10 garden this morning to promote the Royal British Legion's poppy seed campaign.

There was no great excitement at the Number 10 lobby briefing. I'll post a summary in a moment.

Patrick McLoughlin, the transport secretary, will be opening the Commons debate on HS2 this afternoon. Overnight the Department for Transport released extracts from a draft of what he is expected to say. Here are the main points.

McLoughlin is expected to compare opponents of HS2 with those who opposed the building of railways in the 19th century and motorways in the 20th century.

It is over 100 years since we last built a mainline railway north of London.

And it is even longer since - in 1833 - this House voted to start what is today known as the West Coast Mainline.

The line wasn’t meant to be a national artery.

It became one almost by accident.

A railway built with twists and turns, to placate landowners.

For slow steam trains pulling open-top carriages.

It is worth recalling that in 1832 Parliament rejected the initial bill because some people objected.

They argued that canals and rivers were all you’d ever need for long-distance travel, anyway.

And we ask too much of it.

If we were talking about roads, it is as if all traffic still had to go up the old routes.

The M1 and M6 had never been built.

And we tried to solve our transport needs by just patching them up.

He is expected to say the West Coast Mainline is "increasingly full".

He is expected to argue that HS2 would help the north to grow.

He is expected to say Britain needs HS2 to keep up with countries like China.

At the start of 2007, China didn’t have a single high speed rail line.

Today it has over 6,000 miles in service.

By 2015 that will be 11,000 miles.

While we have just 67 miles, from London to Kent and the Channel Tunnel.

He is expected to argue that new communications technology makes improved transport links more important, not less important.

Twice as many people travel by train every day as they did 20 years ago.

More people drive and fly, too.

There’s a reason for that.

In a better-connected world, our horizons broaden.

Digital links don’t replace travel. They fuel it.

Smartphones and broadband aren’t an alternative to things like HS2.

They are part of the same growing links between people and businesses.

I'm off to the Number 10 lobby briefing now. I will post again after 11.30am.

You can read all today’s Guardian politics stories here. And all the politics stories filed yesterday, including some in today’s paper, are here.

As for the rest of the papers, here’s the PoliticsHome list of top 10 must-reads, here’s the ConservativeHome round-up of the politics stories in today’s papers and here’s the New Statesman’s list of top 10 comment articles.

And here are three articles I found particularly interesting.

Lord Glasman, an adviser to Ed Miliband, tells the Times in an interview (paywall) that Labour voters are defecting to Ukip because the party is too middle class.

Labour voters are defecting to Ukip because the party has become too “middle class”, a leading ally of Ed Miliband has warned.

Lord Glasman, a policy guru who was ennobled by Mr Miliband, said that the rise of Ukip would hit Labour “in the heartlands”. He urged the party to adopt a series of measures to win back working-class support.

In an interview with The Times, he said that Labour needed to address concerns about immigration and welfare to stop voters from abandoning the party permanently. “That is the dilemma at the heart of the party’s strategy — is it possible to address these economic, political and cultural concerns when the party is becoming, in many ways, very middle class? What I mean by that is liberal and progressive in its sensibility,” he said.

“Ed [Miliband] is trying to address it. This is a long-term trend since 2001, in terms of the working-class vote just declining quite dramatically. The Labour middle-class vote held up [in 2010]. It was the working-class vote that died. These are often people who are earning, who have jobs, but they don’t see Labour as representing their interests.”

Tom Pettifor in the Daily Mirror says one Tony Blair’s ministers was among a group of men suspected of sexually abusing children at a home run by a convicted paedophile.

Boris Johnson in the Daily Telegraph says that we should get MPs to serve as MEPs.

We could decide, now, that we were going to change the electoral basis on which we send representatives to Strasbourg. Instead of holding these ludicrous pseudo-elections, where nobody knows who the hell they are voting for, we should appoint the British delegation of 73 from our already sizeable stock of parliamentarians. Yes: let them be Westminster MPs – not picked by the whips, but by lot and with the seats roughly proportional to the parties’ representation in Westminster. There is no reason why MPs should not take on this duty: they are well used to sitting on Bill committees. They have the time.

There are all sorts of attractions to this solution. First, we would save quite a bit of money: the cost of having all these extra Euro-MPs ultimately falls on the UK taxpayer. More important, it would mean that Britain’s delegation would be hard-wired to reflect the will of the British parliament, and the will of their local electors.

The National Farmers' Union has got concerns about HS2. Its president, Meurig Raymond, has just put out this statement.

We are aware from the Environmental Statement published last autumn that there are 213 agricultural holdings directly affected by HS2 Ltd developments along the proposed route from London to the West Midlands. These agricultural holdings vary hugely in size and type but are united by the uncertainty HS2 has created for the individuals and those businesses involved.

We recognise the importance of investing in the nation’s transport infrastructure. However it is vital that farm businesses are treated fairly with enhanced compensation paid promptly to redress the damage done to those along the line. And we need far greater clarity from HS2 Ltd regarding the economic gains of the promised enhanced connectivity, particularly for rural communities, if our members are going to see any benefit from the building of HS2 Phase 1.

We are getting to a crucial stage in this process now but there are still many grey areas. HS2 presents an unacceptable treble hit for farmers. Firstly, essential farmland is already being lost to the HS2 line; secondly, larger areas which have been highlighted for habitat creation and tree planting will take valuable food-producing land out of production; and thirdly, far more new habitat is being imposed than is being lost on a questionable ‘bigger is better’ principle. It is absolutely essential that government finds a balance between what is best for nature and what is best for agriculture.

The rightwing Institute for Economic Affairs has published a 40-page report saying that HS2 is "highly unlikely" to benefit the north as much as the government claims.

Here's an extract from the summary.

The economic transformation of the North of England is now central to the government’s promotion of High Speed 2 (HS2). It is claimed the new line would boost employment and address the North-South divide. However, there are numerous reasons to be sceptical about these assertions.

Policymakers made similar regeneration claims prior to the use of High Speed 1 for fast domestic services to East Kent. Savings in travel times were considerable and not too different from those expected from HS2.

Since the introduction of high-speed services East Kent has performed far worse in terms of employment than the rest of the South East and the rest of Britain. From 2010-2013 the average employment rate was 5 percentage points lower than during the pre-high-speed period examined, compared with falls of 2.1 percentage points for the South East and 1.8 percentage points nationally. Some parts of the area now have similar employment rates to depressed old industrial cities in the North.

High-speed rail has thus far failed to transform the economy of East Kent. It would appear that the impact of the fast train services has been too small to counteract other more important economic factors.

Economic evidence from other towns with a fast rail link to London adds to the doubts. Doncaster, for example, has enjoyed rapid and frequent rail services to the capital for several decades but remains one of the poorest towns in the country. Travel times from London to Birmingham are similar to those HS2 would deliver to the North of England, yet the city performs worse than northern cities on key economic measures.

And here's the full report (pdf).

The Department for Transport says the report is flawed.

This is a flawed report from the organisation that opposed the Crossrail project. It is simply wrong to say High Speed 1 hasn't brought significant benefits. It has provided a significant boost to places like Ashford and is expected to lead to 15,000 new homes and 70,000 new jobs. And the IEA's apparent argument that the example of Doncaster shows we shouldn't bother investing in better transport links is just bizarre.

And this is from Julian Glover, the former Guardian writer who is now an adviser at the Department for Transport.

On HS2, @election_data has sent me this useful map showing which parties hold the constituencies affected by the HS2 route.

Here's Benedict Brogan's take on where we are with HS2 from his Telegraph morning briefing email.

It's a big moment in the Commons today. MPs will vote to give the go-ahead to HS2, endorsing the principle of high speed rail to the North of the country. The focus this morning is on the scale of any rebellion - the BBC says 30 Tories will vote against, more than rebelled over the paving Bill. Yet to judge by the papers, the rebellion hasn't got much momentum behind it: coverage is thin, and there's no sense of drama about it, or of any personal political difficulty for David Cameron. True, some of those lined up against HS2 may be motivated by something other than a passion against fast trains, but this doesn't feel like a test of Dave. In fact, it feels as if it's one of those issues where the numbers mean it's safe to rebel.

Labour's support, consolidated by Mary Creagh over the weekend, means the legislation will receive its Second Reading and head into its committee where it will be subject to many petititons from local authorities and other bodies objecting to the route and the idea. The Government remains anxious to get the process right and avoid any risks, so has given up on the hope of getting it done this Parliament. With the May elections, the Scotland referendum, and party conferences, there isn't nearly enough time. Efforts have been made to give Labour access to all the information it needs. Those on the government side congratulate themselves that Ed Balls has been won over by Sir David Higgins, the new HS2 boss, and that Labour's backing has been secured and will ensure HS2 goes ahead whatever the outcome of the general election. Indeed, the amount of scrutiny HS2 will receive compared to, say, the M40, is striking. One thing is certain: this scheme isn't being rushed.

And here's Paul Waugh's take from his PoliticsHome morning email, the Waugh room memo.

Thanks to Labour’s support, Tory rebels have free rein to back the Fabricant and Gillan amendments tonight, putting down markers at the Second Reading of the HS2 Bill. The whips aren’t sanguine but know the pressure is off slightly as the vote will be won by a large margin. Rebels claim upto 100 opponents but so far it seems just over 30 may actually rebel (though that could rise as the day goes on).

Ministerial absences will be analysed closely tonight when the vote takes place between 10pm and 11pm. Will Andrea Leadsom be present? David Lidington has the excuse of being in Estonia.

Last night on Radio 4’s Westminster Hour, Cheryl Gillan said: “I'm rather tired of these noises off about ministers and are they being allowed out of town when a crucial vote is being taken forward which involves their constituency. What people have to understand is we need Members of Parliament who are both ministers and backbenchers like myself, I need people inside and outside the tent to ensure that we get the maximum benefits from any changes that are made to this project. After all, people forget I was a member of the Cabinet when the then Secretary of State for Transport granted me some tunnelling which helped protect more of my constituency.”

Gillan also said that the bill wouldn’t become law before the general election anyway. But Patrick McLoughlin has already admitted that earlier this year.

This afternoon the HS2 bill - or the high-speed rail (London - West Midlands) bill, to give it its official title - is getting its second reading in the House of Commons. We're expecting at least 30 Conservative MPs to rebel, but Labour are backing the bill and so there is no prospect of it being defeated. As Gwyn Topham reports in his Guardian preview, today marks an important landmark in the journey towards HS2 actually being built. But today we might learn a bit more about just how confident its backers are about the whole thing actually happening, and what hope opponents have of blocking the scheme now that all the main parties are fully committed to it.

The debate will go on until 11pm. I'm afraid I won't keep going until then, but I will cover the opening, and the first couple of hours or so, in detail, which should give us a good sense of what the view of the Commons is. I will also be covering all HS2 developments throughout the day.

Otherwise it's relatively quiet. Here is the agenda.

Morning: Sir Peter Fahey, chief constable of Manchester police, and Colin Lambert, leader of Rochdale council, are due to hold a press conference to announce that the investigation into sexual abuse by Sir Cyril Smith is going to be widened to include any potential council cover-up.

10am: The Green party launches its European election campaign and manifesto.

11am: Number 10 lobby briefing.

12pm: A Stop HS2 demonstration takes place at Westminster.

3.30pm: Patrick McLoughlin, the transport secretary, opens the Commons debate on HS2.

As usual, I will also be flagging up any breaking political news, posting summaries with a round-up of all the day’s developments, and highlighting the most interesting political articles on the web.

If you want to follow me on Twitter, I’m on @AndrewSparrow.